DragonBones: A Discussion
by Truekillr Strickulis

I: Introduction
Dragon Bones is a game played with two bones. Each of those bones has 6 sides. Each side has an associated number value according to the number of dots or "pips" on them. The numbers are 1-6.

There are a number of combinations possible with odds on each one coming up. Some are easier to achieve than others, with some being downright rare.

This is all based off of probabilities of the bones landing a certain way. For more on probabilities see section VII of this document.

Betting is rather simple. You BET <amount> on <choice>. There are a large number of different choices of bets, which will also be discussed in a later chapter. The simple way to describe it is, the bones are thrown, and a combination yielding a number (or dragon) is produced.

Depending on the bet you made, and the combination produced you win or lose! Believe it or not, Dragon Bones is almost a positive return game if bet correctly and over a lengthy period of time.

For those of you familiar with another game called "craps", this will be very easy for you to understand.

However, please note that the dragon bets throw the odds off significantly in the negative direction for all true "craps" players.

More to be discussed later concerning this. Now, on to the explanations!

II. Explanation of "Fly out rolls" and "Quarries"
A fly out roll is the beginning of a new game of bones. The roller, or "slayer", rolls the bones. This is a brand new opportunity to place a bet. Keep in mind, you can single roll bets on any roll, regardless of type, but only on a fly out roll can you place a multiple roll bet.

The fly out roll is the roll in which a "quarry" is established. A quarry, also known as the "point", is the goal for the slayer to reproduce in order to continue rolling. If a 7 is rolled before the quarry then the slayer forfeits his turn and a new slayer is chosen. There are no inherent benefits of being a slayer except for the control of the game, and the tips one may receive if they are a good slayer.

Depending on the type of bet, a fly out roll can yield a win even on multiple roll bets, but can also generate a loser on multiple roll bets. For more on the betting, see the next section.

III. Explanation of the different types of *multiple roll* bets
A multiple roll bet is just what it sounds like -- a bet that will stand on the table for multiple rolls. Some of these bets can ONLY be placed on the fly out roll. The different types of multiple roll bets are numerous, but the three I will concentrate on are the Dragon Spine/Belly bets, the Odds bet and the Place bet.

Spine and Belly bets:
The Dragon Spine bet is a bet in favor of the slayer. This means that when a quarry is established that you are betting with the odds that the slayer will roll the Quarry number before he/she rolls a 7. If that is accomplished, you win and there is another fly out roll. If a 7 is rolled before the established quarry, you lose and a new slayer is chosen for a new fly out roll.

The Dragon Belly bet is a bet opposed to the slayer. This means you are betting that the slayer will roll a 7 before rolling the established quarry. If a 7 is rolled first, then you win! A new slayer is chosen still (because the 7 was rolled before the quarry), and a new fly out roll is produced. If the quarry hits before your 7, then you lose your bet and the slayer continues with a new fly out roll.

In addition to the wins and loses above, the Spine and Belly bets also have the potential to win or lose on the fly out rolls, thus negating the multiple roll aspect. This is accomplished as follows. If you are betting Spine (with the slayer) and a 7 or 11 is rolled on the fly out roll, you win! If a 2,3,12 is rolled on the fly out roll you lose! Win or lose, if either of these occur, then you must place a new bet. On a Belly bet, it is just the opposite of Spine. You win if a 2,3,12 is rolled, and lose if the 7or 11 is rolled.

"Odds" bet:
The single best bet in the game of dragon bones occurs after you've bet either Spine or Belly and a quarry is established. The bet is called the "Odds" bet. What you are doing is betting on the odds of your quarry coming up before a 7, or vice versa for belly betters. You are allowed to bet up to twice your original belly/spine bet (The table maximums do not hold true for odds). You can bet any amount you'd like up to that double bet. This bet is wonderful because, as the name implies, it pays odds on your quarry!

The odds are established by the likelihood of whatever number is established coming up before a 7. There are many more combinations that yield a 6 or 8, than yield a 4 or 10. Thus, the 4 and 10 pay better odds than a 6 or 8 on a spine bet. For a belly bet, you are betting that a 7 comes up before the quarry, thus the odds are reversed. Meaning, it's more likely a 6 or 8 is going to come up than a 4 or 10, so if you bet belly, and then odds, the 6 and 8 pay the most. The odds bet is the single best bet in any widely known gambling game. Period. The return on your bet is so high that, betting well, you can almost (not quite) make this a positive return game.

Let me illustrate a simple example of how I would bet. Tegan (the pit boss) calls "normal betting now open". It's a fly out roll. I'd "BET 1000 on Spine". I just placed a bet with the slayer. The betting closes and the bones are flung. If a 7 or 11 come up I win my 1000 and additional 1000 coins. Even odds. If a 2,3,12 comes up, I lose. If a quarry is established then my bet stands on the table until either the quarry is hit again, a 7 is rolled, or a dreaded dragon roll is thrown. Now, let's say a 6 was thrown. This is a great number because it has a high likely-hood of hitting again. This is a good thing for my spine bet!

So now, the 6 is the quarry. I would back up my 1000 spine bet with a 2000 odds bet. This bet also will stay on the table. From here, I'd make no additional bets until a new fly out roll. This is where you can sit back and relax, or play around with some other bets. If you're looking to lessen risk and increase return, don't mess around with other bets. Sit tight, interact and enjoy the suspense. Let's continue.

Right now I have 3000 silvers on the table in multiple roll bets. What I'd be chanting for would be a 6! The next roll is an 8. It has no effect on us. A 2 is rolled, no effect, a 5 is rolled, no effect, a 12 is rolled, no effect. Finally a 6 is rolled! I'd win! I'd win my original 1000 silver on my spine bet plus another 1000. This is called "even odds".

Speaking of odds, my "Odds" bet won my original 2000 silver back, plus an additional 2400 coins (6:5)! That is where the odds come into play. I won my 3400 silver on a 3000 bet. Better than even. If that number had been a 4 or 10, I would have won 1000 on my spine bet and 2:1 on my 2000 odds bet which would yield 4000. My total win on a 3000 bet would have been 8000. Very nice.

Basic odds, for the Odds bets are listed below:

Number rolled Spine Belly
4 or 10 2 to 1 1 to 2
5 or 9 3 to 2 2 to 3
6 or 8 6 to 5 5 to 6

The reason the Odds when betting on Belly are reversed is because the likelihood of a 7 being rolled is much higher than any of the other numbers, so while Belly Odds have a higher chance of winning, the amount won is a reverse proportion.

Place bets:
A place bet is a bet that stands for multiple rolls and is a bet that can be placed at any time. It is simply a bet on a particular number. It pays out odds according to the likelihood that the number will be rolled. The potential numbers that a Place Bet can be bet on are 4,5,6,8,9, and 10. Once the bet is placed, it stays on the table until that number is rolled. The only way that the silvers come off the table without a win is when a quarry is established and the slayer rolls a dragon strike (7) before he hits his quarry. If he hits his quarry, the bets remain until another is established and the outcome is determined as noted above.

As mentioned, the numbers pay odds just like the Odds bet, however a bit less money since the house needs to make some money sometime and the Odds bet is an even money proposition, when Dragon bets are not counted.

The payoff for the place bets is below:

Number rolled
4 or 10 9 to 5
5 or 9 7 to 5
6 or 8 7 to 6

A 1000 silver bet on a 4 that hits will pay you 1800 plus the original 1000 silver bet back for a total of 2800 silver. You must re-bet once a number hits if you wish to remain placed on the number.

Hardway or "Scaly" bets:
Scaly bets are another multiple roll bet. These bets pay extremely good odds, but rarely hit. The premise of the Scaly bets is that the number bet upon, will be rolled the "hardway". The hardway is a pair of numbers, and not a combination of different numbers. The likelihood that a pair of numbers will come up on the dice is exactly 1 in every 36 rolls. A scaly bet is a multiple bet that says "I think that a hard 6 will come up before a regular 6". That means two 3's must be rolled before a 6 of 4:2, 2:4, 5:1, or 1:5. The likelihood is low, but the payout is 9:1. Oh, did I mention that if the slayer throws a dragon strike after a quarry is established you lose the bet also?

All that being said, a Scaly bet is a fun one, but definitely not one in which you'd bet if you were trying to beat the house in the long term. The odds are below:

Number rolled Paying Odds
Scaly 6 or 8 9:1
Scaly 4 or 10 7:1

The reason the 4 and 10 pay less is that there is more of a chance that a 2:2 or 5:5 come up than any other combination of 4 or 10 since there are less possible combinations for the 4 or 10.

My advice on the scaly bets is to stay away unless you're looking to add a bit more excitement to the rolls.

IV. Single Roll bets
Single roll bets are just that, rolls that stand for a single roll only. In this section, we'll outline all the single roll bets.

Single roll bets include the following; a place bet on 2, 3, 11, or 12; an "Any Bite" bet, and a Lair bet.

A place bet on 2, 3, 11 or 12 pays odds, of course. The odds are much lower than the likelihood of the number coming up, but are very high. An "Any" bet is a bet that a Bite will be rolled. A Bite is a 2,3 or 12. The Lair bet is a bet that believes a 2,3,4, 9,10,11or 12. The odds of the bets are below:

Number rolled Odds
2 or 12 30:1
3 or 11 15:1
Any Bite 7:1
Lair 1:1
Lair (2 or 12) 2:1

The place bets and the Any bet are common in Dragon Bones since they have the potential to give a big win and bettors believe they need to hit a big win to even out the house edge on the dragon bets. Wise advice, but it can get expensive. The Any bet is commonly used to hedge your bets on a Spine/Belly bet, but is rarely used in those terms in Dragon Bones.

The Lair bet is the most common bet since it is the easiest for people to understand in the complex game. The actual odds of winning, taking into account being paid 2:1 on the 2 and 12, come out to be 44.4%, which is a 12% house edge. In other words, it's a sucker bet, but it's a fun and easy one to make, especially if you can get on a run.

V. Explanation of Dragon betting
Dragon betting is an entirely different set of betting that follows no logic whatsoever. There is no way to calculate odds and there is no way to predict when something is going to hit. It is not a certain combination of numbers, it is simply a semi random occurrence with the bones stopping in mid air, coming up blank, etc. Any of the dragon bets are extremely risky, but they also pay huge. There are 4 types of dragon bets, Blood, Spawn, Master and Breath. Dragon betting is opened each roll after normal betting closes.

Again, it is extremely important to note the effects of the 4 different dragon bets. Any dragon bet wipes all bets from the table, regardless of whether they are multiple roll bets, fly out roll bets, single roll bets etc. They can come at the most inopportune time for normal betters, but if there is a dragon better and they hit, you'll probably witness the most silver changing hands you've ever seen. Only one person is allowed to bet on any dragon bet at one time.

Dragons Blood: This bet is the only dragon bet that is a multiple roll bet. It is also extremely costly to the bettor. Only one person can bet this and is done by placing, a minimum, of 1000 silvers on the bet. You can increase your bet, but for every time "blood" is not rolled, you are compelled to bet the same amount. Not so bad for a 1000 silver bet eh? Here's the catch, not only do you bet that silver, but you also bet your blood. Yes your actual blood. The amount of blood lost per roll is directly proportional to the amount of silver you're betting. I've heard different accounts of the amount of blood on a 1000 silver bet, and there is definitely a variable factor, but it is commonly between 18-22% of your max blood per roll. This was changed recently, as it used to be just a variable amount of blood, which heavily favored warriors and giantmen. When your silver, or your blood run out you perish and lose. The "blood" bet is then opened for the next person who likes to risk their life.

The payout is very good for this bet if you do not mind taking your life into your own hands. You receive your original bet back and all the silver that was bet on the table. Everyone's spine, belly, lair, and number bets. Everything. The entire tables' wagers are yours. A decent payout for the small cost in silver as long as you don't mind risking your hide.

Dragon Spawn: Another completely random bet, this is done by betting a minimum of 1/200th of the amount in the maw. It is a one-roll bet. The payouts are very straightforward. You receive 40 times your original bet. A good chunk of change, but some of the minimums get very high if the maw is substantial.

Dragons Breath: This bet is done the same way any other bet is made. It is also a single roll bet. The minimum is 1/10th the amount currently bet on the table. Your rewards, if it hits, is the entire amount bet on the table. It is a 10:1 payoff for a ridiculously low chance of hitting. Stay away from this bet unless you get that "feeling".

Dragon Master: This is the single biggest payout. It is astronomical. It is a single roll bet with a minimum of 1/100th of what is in the maw. The payouts are mind-boggling. You win all of the silver on the table, half of what is in the maw AND 10% of the maw at the end of betting. This is a huge payout. Very high cost, but likewise, very high payout.

For example, I once won a master bet while a few of us were playing. I bet 210,000 silver on a maw of about 20.5m. I won an immediate 10.25m from the maw, the 5-6m that was bet on the table, and an additional 4m when the maw ended at 40.5m. My total take for a 210k bet was about 21m. I tipped my slayer 10% of the initial take and 1m to the person who challenged me to bet it. An almost 100:1 payout. It was a small maw, and a weak betting session or I would have won more. I've seen a maw generate 40m silver in 3 rolls during a busy day.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not looking the gift horse in the mouth, but if one wins a master at the beginning of a big session they will have money to buy that keep in the mountains they've always wanted.

VI. Explanation of the odds (generic) and betting styles

The odds of a game determine whether or not the payouts will be good. There are a number of ways that people can increase their odds, but many more ways to decrease the odds. A smart bettor can weather the bad streaks of luck and capitalize on the good streaks, while a bad bettor increases the losses during the bad streaks and does not win as much during the good streaks. Being an informed bettor, and knowing how to calculate the odds of a specific game is a great way to increase your chances of winning and the fun you'll have. For some, ignorance is bliss and they enjoy themselves NOT knowing, but then again, I'd rather have fun AND win silver. Below, is how to generically figure out the odds of Dragon bones. I will not use any percentages in the explanation because they will be faulty. This is due to the fact that the dragon betting does not allow for odds calculation to any measure of accuracy.

DB is based on the two bones with 6 values on each bone. The possible outcomes of the roll are 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,and 12. Each of these numbers has a certain chance of hitting. The reason 7 is used as the dragon strike is because it is the easiest to accomplish. I will give the possible combinations of the bones for each of the numbers.

Roll Combinations
2 1:1
3 1:2, 2:1
4 1:3, 3:1, 2:2
5 1:4, 4:1, 2:3, 3:2
6 1:5, 5:1, 2:4, 4:2, 3:3
7 1:6, 6:1, 2:5, 5:2, 3:4, 4:3
8 2:6, 6:2, 3:5, 5:3, 4:4
9 3:6, 6:3, 4:5, 5:4
10 4:6, 6:4, 5:5
11 5:6, 6:5
12 6:6

The above tree gives you the different possible bones combinations for each possible roll. Note the number 7 has the most ways to win. The likelihood of the numbers hitting become progressively less the further from a 7 you go. Notice the 6 and 8 have the same number of combinations. This is why the "odds" are the same for them. Also note that 6,7,8 are NOT winners on your dragon's lair bet. These three constitute the three most likely numbers to come up on any given roll. There are 36 possible number combinations.

Again, the dragon bets skew the odds, so I'll put it in simple terms, and not percentages. Of those 36 chances a full 16 are encompassed in the 6,7 and 8. 2 and 12 have a 1 in 36 chance of hitting on each roll. The same can be said for any "scaly" bet. A scaly 4, 6, 8,and 10 all have the exact same odds of hitting as a 2 or 12. This is because there is only one combination that can produce it. (i.e. 2:2, 3:3, 4:4, 5:5 ) If you understand this, and know that the odds are against you, why would you bet with such horrid odds? A 9:1 payout on a 1 in 36 chance is not smart betting.

The above tree should illustrate why a Spine or Belly bet with Odds behind it is the best bet. Sure your 10 has a 1:2 chance of hitting before a 7, but you are also getting paid 2:1 on the bet. This means that it is exactly an even money venture. Same with the other odds if you'd like to calculate them. Again, it is extremely important to note that dragon bets skew these odds horribly.

Betting Styles:
There are a number of betting styles that people utilize. No matter how you are betting, you definitely fall into a certain betting style. For example, if you are a casual gambler that randomly places bets on what you feel is going to hit next, you fall into the "Feeling bettor" category. If you are meticulous in betting with the odds the entire time, you fall into the "odds bettor" category. If you consistently bet the high risk/high yield bets, you are a "Risk bettor". A category can be achieved for each type of betting style, however there are certain types of betting that any type of category bettor can utilize to either increase risk/yield, decrease risk/yield or moderate. They are called betting progressions.

I must warn you now that a betting progression, whichever kind, is extremely risky. You are betting on the "streakiness" of gambling. Any progression relies upon a number of wins/losses happening sequentially. If this does not happen, the progressions can actual hinder your win potential. There are two types of betting progressions, the "negative" and "positive" betting progressions.

The negative betting progression is the single riskiest way to bet. However with an unlimited cash flow, and never hitting the table maximum, you will be able to always break even. Note the stipulations: With an unlimited cash flow AND no table maximums.

The way it works is like this: You bet 1000 silver, you lose, you bet 2000 silver to make up for the 1000 silver you've already lost. If you win you've won your original bet. If you lose, you double the bet again until you eventually win. When you win, you just broke even, won your original bet, and can start the process all over again. As you can see, this is based on streaks. How you decide to stop on winning streaks is completely up to you. You can take the 1000 silver win and start over again, or you can let it ride to a certain point and then start over.

The problem with this type of progression is that likelihood that you are going to, eventually, be forced to bet too high of an amount. For example, say you begin your bet at 50k in silver. A loss requires a 100k bet, another loss 200k another loss 400k and another loss now requires you to bet 800k. However the table maximum is 500k. If you lose again, you will need to make two 500k, and a 250k bet to break even. If all three don't come in a row, you fall even deeper in the hole with no way of continuing your progression to get out of the hole. This is where the issues begin and the impossibility of winning consistently shows itself. Stay away from this unless you have lots of silver but wish to bet small.

The positive betting progression is just the opposite of the negative betting progression. You double your bet on winning streaks. For example, you bet 1000 silver and win, you let your winning ride for 2000, then for 4k, then 8k etc. This is a dangerous way to lose the luck-earned silver you just accumulated. It's also a way to ride a long winning streak to riches. If you begin your bet at 50k, and win 4 times in a row, your 50k bet just turned into winnings totaling 750k. For example, on a 50k bet; win, let it ride to 100k, win and let it ride to 200k, win and let that ride to 400k. Now you have a 400k bet on the table. A win gives you an additional 400k for a total of 800k. Back out your original 50k bet, and you now just won 750k on a 4-win streak. Not bad for a small original bet. When you want to stop is up to you. Some people like to win at least 5 in a row, some like to go for 3 or 10. Let your risk decide. With a positive betting progression you always bet your original bet after a loss.

DO NOT combine the positive and negative betting progressions. You will lose your money so quickly you won't know what happened. There is absolutely no benefit to betting both at the same time. Concentrate on one or the other, preferably the positive betting progression.

Keep in mind the above explanation was using even odds as a basis for win's and loses. In dragon bones this is the Dragon's Lair bet. You should never, ever bet a negative progression, or positive, on anything that is far from an even chance of winning. Betting either progression on a 2 or 12 is ludicrous. Either number has but a 1 in 36 chance of hitting. That's 35 losses before a win. Not a good idea to bet that, though the big win will even it out in the end. However, there's no need to do so with Dragon Bones.

VII. Conclusion
In short, Dragon Bones, while outwardly complicated, has enough different things to bet on that it can be fun for all gamblers, high-stakes to casual 100 silver gamblers. It's a game with expansive complicated betting possibilities, and yet still retains an air of excitement and camaraderie. Hopefully this small dissertation and explanation has helped take some of the confusion and apprehension away from the game and will encourage folks to jump right in and join in the fun. Heck, you might even win a few…million…silvers.